With 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide, the decision will shape the Church’s direction for years to come. The conclave, expected to begin in early to mid-May, is a secretive process steeped in tradition, making predictions challenging. Yet, several cardinals have emerged as frontrunners, or papabile, based on their influence, ideology, and global reach. Here’s a look at the top contenders to become the 267th pope, based on the latest insights.

The Papal Conclave: How It Works

Before diving into the contenders, it’s worth understanding the conclave process. Only cardinals under 80 can vote, with 138 currently eligible, though the number is typically capped at 120. The cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel, isolated from the outside world, to cast secret ballots. A two-thirds majority is needed to elect the pope. Ballots are burned after each round, producing black smoke if no decision is reached or white smoke to signal a new pope. The process, which can last days or weeks, is both sacred and strategic, with cardinals weighing theology, geography, and Church priorities.

Top Contenders for the Next Pope

The next pope could make history as the first from Asia, Africa, or another underrepresented region, reflecting the Church’s growing diversity. Pope Francis, the first Latin American pope, appointed over 80% of the current electors, tilting the scales toward candidates who share his pastoral focus on social justice and inclusivity. However, ideological divides between progressives and conservatives, as well as regional priorities, will shape the outcome. Below are the leading candidates, listed alphabetically, based on recent analyses and Vatican observer insights.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of the Congo, 65)

• Profile: Archbishop of Kinshasa and a prominent African cardinal, Ambongo is a conservative voice who champions social justice and peace in conflict-ridden regions. He has criticized Western influences on Church doctrine, particularly on LGBTQ issues, aligning with traditional teachings.
• Why He’s a Contender: Africa’s growing Catholic population makes Ambongo a compelling choice. His outspoken advocacy for the poor and his conservative stance appeal to cardinals seeking orthodoxy with a global perspective.
• Challenges: His conservative views may alienate progressive electors, and his criticism of Pope Francis’ reforms could hinder his chances in a conclave dominated by Francis appointees.

Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix (Canada, 67)

• Profile: Archbishop of Quebec, Lacroix is an accomplished leader known for his pastoral sensitivity in a highly secularized country. A member of Pope Francis’ Council of Cardinals, he promotes a missionary Church focused on evangelization and outreach.
• Why He’s a Contender: Lacroix’s leadership in a challenging secular context and his role advising Francis highlight his capabilities. His focus on a missionary Church aligns with Francis’ vision, making him appealing to progressive and moderate cardinals.
• Challenges: An allegation of sexual abuse from the 1980s, raised in a class-action lawsuit against the Quebec archdiocese, could harm his candidacy. Though Lacroix denied the claim and a Vatican-commissioned investigation by a retired judge found no evidence of misconduct, the accusation may linger in some cardinals’ minds. However, the judge’s findings could also be seen as a vetting that strengthens his position.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)

• Profile: Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and a canon law expert, Erdő is a conservative with strong ties to European and African bishops. He has built bridges with Francis’ progressive wing while maintaining traditional views on marriage and doctrine.
• Why He’s a Contender: Erdő’s experience in two prior conclaves and his leadership in European episcopal conferences make him a respected figure. His pragmatic conservatism could appeal as a compromise choice.
• Challenges: Lacking charisma and pastoral experience outside Europe may limit his appeal in a conclave seeking a dynamic, global leader.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)

• Profile: Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat who has worked closely with Francis. Known for moderating the Vatican’s deal with China on bishop appointments, he balances progressive reforms with bureaucratic stability.
• Why He’s a Contender: As a moderate “continuity candidate,” Parolin appeals to those who want Francis’ reforms to continue without radical shifts. His Italian roots and diplomatic finesse make him a safe, familiar choice.
• Challenges: Critics point to his lack of pastoral experience and controversies, like the China deal, as potential weaknesses. Some may resist returning the papacy to an Italian after three non-Italian popes.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)

• Profile: Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pizzaballa is a pastoral leader who has navigated Middle East conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas war. His willingness to engage in peace efforts, such as offering himself for hostage exchanges, highlights his dedication.
• Why He’s a Contender: His youth, pastoral focus, and geopolitical role make him a bold, symbolic choice. Electing him would signal the Church’s commitment to peace and the Holy Land.
• Challenges: His relative inexperience in Vatican politics and young age may deter cardinals wary of a long papacy.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)

• Profile: Archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops’ conference, Zuppi is a progressive “street priest” tied to the Sant’Egidio Community. He has served as Francis’ peace envoy to Ukraine and supports inclusivity for same-sex couples.
• Why He’s a Contender: Zuppi’s pastoral approach and diplomatic missions align with Francis’ priorities, making him a strong progressive candidate. His Italian background adds familiarity.
• Challenges: His liberal views may face resistance from conservative cardinals, and his lack of high-level Vatican experience could be a concern.

How They Select the Pope?

The next pope will inherit a Church navigating complex issues: declining European influence, growing African and Asian congregations, and debates over inclusivity, clerical abuse, and secularism. Francis’ diverse appointments have created a conclave that is less Eurocentric, with nearly half the electors from the Global South. Key factors influencing the vote include:

• Ideology: Progressives favor continuing Francis’ reforms, while conservatives seek a return to traditional doctrine. A moderate or compromise candidate may prevail to bridge the divide.
• Geography: A non-European pope could reflect the Church’s global shift, with Asia and Africa as emerging powerhouses.
• Age: Younger candidates like Pizzaballa or Tagle may face resistance from cardinals wary of long papacies, while older candidates like Turkson or Scola (83, not listed above) could be seen as interim choices.
• Charisma and Communication: The next pope must engage a global audience, making candidates like Tagle or Turkson, with strong communication skills, appealing.

Historical Context Behind Predicting The Next Pope

Predicting the next pope is notoriously difficult. As Vatican observers note, “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” Pope Francis himself was an unexpected choice in 2013, as was John Paul II in 1978. Past papabile like Angelo Scola or Carlo Maria Martini failed to secure the papacy, while lesser-known cardinals rose to the occasion. The 2025 conclave, with its record 138 electors and diverse makeup, is poised to be one of the most unpredictable in history.

What’s Next and When Is Pope Francis Funeral?

The mourning period for Pope Francis, culminating in his funeral on April 26, 2025, will provide cardinals time to confer informally before the conclave. These discussions, often held over meals or in private meetings, are critical for gauging support and building coalitions. While bookmakers and analysts highlight Tagle, Parolin, and Turkson as favorites, the Holy Spirit—and the cardinals’ strategic votes—will ultimately decide.

The election of the next pope is more than a leadership change; it’s a pivotal moment for the Catholic Church’s identity and mission. Will the cardinals choose a progressive reformer, a conservative traditionalist, or a moderate bridge-builder? Will they make history with an African or Asian pope? As the world awaits the white smoke, one thing is clear: the decision will resonate far beyond the Vatican’s walls.

Stay tuned for updates as the conclave approaches and share your thoughts on who you think will lead the Church next – For more updates, follow The Dubai Street.